Silva: Strengths, weaknesses, X-factors for all 8

The strengths, weaknesses, X-factors and keys to winning

ANALYSIS

updated 6:57 p.m. ET Jan. 11, 2012

Evan Silva

The NFL's best weekend awaits us. Four games featuring eight of the league's elite teams, nearly all whom have a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl.

Here's breakdown of the divisional games this weekend, which focuses on each team's strengths, weaknesses, X-factors and the keys to winning.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
When: Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Paul Sakuma / AP The San Francisco defense gang tackles Saints running back Pierre Thomas.

Saints must: Pick on San Francisco's outside cornerbacks.

The 49ers don't match up well with New Orleans because San Francisco's defensive strength is stopping the run, and its weakness is defending the pass. The Saints love to air it out, finishing the season second in the NFL in pass attempts and leading all teams in playoff passing yards.

New Orleans' spread-like offense will force 49ers coordinator Vic Fangio?s defense into constant nickel sets, in which top corner Carlos Rogers covers the slot, with Tarell Brown and rookie Chris Culliver outside. Brown and Culliver are the weak links. They'll have their hands full against deep threat Robert Meachem and versatile wideout Marques Colston, while tight end Jimmy Graham matches up with safeties.

49ers must: Run early and often, and stick to it.

This is where Detroit went wrong last week. Instead of attacking New Orleans' soft front seven with a ground-based approach, the Lions attempted to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees in an aerial shootout. Eight of the Lions' initial 10 offensive plays were passes, and they finished with an incredibly lopsided 43:10 pass-to-run ratio.

First-year coach Jim Harbaugh's offense has been run-based all year, so the opposite comes natural to the 49ers. San Francisco ended the regular season with the NFC's most rushing attempts, and no 16-game starter threw fewer passes than Alex Smith. If Matthew Stafford can't beat the Saints with his arm, Smith certainly won't.

Harbaugh made it a point in 2011 to utilize Smith as a game manager. Facing a Saints defense that permits nearly five yards per rushing play, Niners tailbacks Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will give New Orleans far more problems.

X-Factor: Safety Roman Harper.

Dropping Harper as an eighth defender into the box will be New Orleans' best way to minimize Gore's impact. A coverage liability but one of the NFL's top run-support safeties, Harper is a physical tackler and playmaker near the line of scrimmage. He's forced eight fumbles over the past two seasons and leads the Saints in tackles during that span. When Harper stays in the back end, he'll be assigned to tight end Vernon Davis.

Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 17

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (CBS)

Broncos must: Shadow Aaron Hernandez with Champ Bailey.

Denver's defensive staff wasted Bailey in its Week 15 matchup with New England. Employing a stubborn, old-school strategy, the Broncos kept Bailey at left cornerback for four quarters while Hernandez tormented rookie safety Quinton Carter and aging right corner Andre' Goodman en route to a season-high nine catches and 129 yards, including a second-quarter touchdown.

The Broncos took Hernandez lightly, using loaded coverage to slow Rob Gronkowski (four receptions, 53 yards) and Wes Welker (41 yards, four catches) while Hernandez ran free. Defending New England's offense can be a pick-your-poison scenario, but allowing Bailey to be a roaming difference-maker would be a good first step.

Patriots must: Take away Demaryius Thomas.

Broncos regular-season receiving leader Eric Decker (knee) will not play. Recognizing Thomas as Denver's lone remaining passing-game threat, New England needs to treat him as if Thomas were Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

Last week, the Steelers made the mistake of selling out strictly to stop the run while cornerback Ike Taylor applied frequent off coverage against Thomas, giving up a sizable cushion. Thomas exploded for 204 yards and the game-winning score. With a 98-yard average over the last month and a half, Thomas has "earned" opponents' double teams. Patriots defensive backs need to get physical with Thomas at the line, and there should be a safety at the top of his route at all times.

X-Factor: Tailback Stevan Ridley.

The Patriots are a pass-heavy team by nature, but they'd be remiss to overlook Denver's recent run-defense woes. Over their last four games, the Broncos have allowed 581 yards and four touchdowns on 119 carries (4.88 average), including letting Steelers backup Isaac Redman run for 121 yards last weekend.

Versatile, powerful, and decisive, Ridley emerged as New England's top rusher down the stretch, playing more snaps and out-producing the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Among NFL backs with at least 85 regular-season rush attempts, Ridley 2.6 yards-after-contact average ranked fourth in the league.

Prediction: Patriots 32, Broncos 20

advertisement

More news

It's PlayStation 3 vs. Atari

Rosenthal: The 49ers and Saints will share a field Saturday afternoon in San Francisco, but they aren?t playing the same game.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45963615/ns/sports-nfl/

bethany hamilton bethany hamilton after christmas sales macys stratfor bears vs packers after christmas sales 2011